The eight major trends in the commercial market in 2022

[Breaking news] 时间:2024-03-02 05:18:35 来源:Breaking news website 作者:{typename type="name"/} 点击:46次


Based on our focus on large retail, large consumption, and large communities, we listed several keywords on the business trend of 2022: small and beautiful, vertical integration, strange category, profitability, embedded, and instructor., Lifetime proposal and agricultural product branding, this is also the main entry point for us to continue to pay attention to these fields in the next year.


This article comes from WeChat public account:Narrow broadcast (ID: Exact-interaction)Author: Shao Lele, Xiao Chao, Yang Yiqi, Zhang Yitong, Zhu Ruomiao, original title: "E -commerce, Consumption, Community, Supply Chain" of the Year ", head map from: Visual China


A retail and e -commerce, near -field and far -field, physical and service, interests and search, etc., are evolving the "big retail pattern" that is fully intertwined and highly coordinated.


The essence of retail is information, transactions and logistics.The reason why the "big retail pattern" appears is that the potential of the Internet relying on traffic capacity to aggregate information, match transactions, and improve circulation efficiency has been maximized.Next, through technical integration and collaboration with different retail formats, in depth to transform the supply chain upstream and downstream, and build a more solid circulation system, it becomes a hard work to compete.


Ali, Pinduoduo, JD, and Meituan's investment in the fields of industrial belts, origin warehouses, logistics and warehousing, agriculture and hardware technology are derived from this.


For example, the newly moved Meituan, based on the accumulated traffic capacity and real -time distribution capacity accumulated in the field of local life services, to buy from the community group(Meituan preferred), Near -field e -commerce(Meituan Flash Shop Cang, Meituan buy food), Yuanchang E -commerce(Good deeds)Attack, "Great Retail" will become the second development curve of Meituan in the next ten years.


From this view, the old opponent of Meituan is no longer just a catering takeaway platform such as "hungry", but a Chinese digital commercial sector formed by Ali(Including big Taobao, B2C retail, Taotai, Taotte, etc.)And the living service sector and retail of the same city in charge of Yu Yongfu.Pinduoduo's online e -commerce and community group purchase, JD.com's community group purchase and retail in the same city(Collaborative Dada)It will become the frontal battlefield of the giants in the next giant.


The trend of integration with the format is,The giants are increasingly clear boundaries and coordination consciousness,For example, the transaction platform and the grass -planting platform are co -operated.Douyin is based on recommending e -commerce, replenishing e -commerce, and working for local life services. In additionThe typical manifestation of chain supplement to the performance capacity.


What needs to be emphasized is that bigThe so -called "e -commerce closed loop" that the community has emphasized in the past two years is not the real closed loop, but the typical embodiment of "a set of supply chains to the entire network".For example, Douyin quickly cut into local life services such as e -commerce physical transactions and selling movie tickets, which is equivalent to opening a plug -in interface for suppliers who have already Internetized.


Therefore, the long -term investment of Ali, JD, and Pinduoduo will also exert increasingly important value.In the large adjustment of the organizational structure of Ali at the end of 2021, the opening of the domestic business B series and C series is also to fully release its supply chain advantage.


Behind retail accelerated integration is a new consumer pattern.The big consumption pattern we pay attention to is a large industry that includes infrastructure such as crowd, supply chain, new brands, to grass -planting platforms, trading channels, and infrastructure such as logistics storage and digital technology.This industry is showing several definition trends from online to offline, from traffic to goods, from brand to industry, from China to overseas.


In the past few years, in the new consumption wave promoted by the e -commerce platform, the new brand is the protagonist, VC provides ammunition, community trafficking traffic, head anchors play accelerators, and each vertical product pattern is initially determined.Among the verified categories, one or two tried to break the category ceiling, and three or four found a new way.In the category of falsification, if one or two sales have declined, three or four also not financing.


After the category pattern is initially determined, vertical integration will become the core trend.The integration is driven by two elements, one is the head brand through self -construction capacity and self -control channels, and the other is the acceleration and intelligent transformation of head enterprises.In order to achieve the coordination of the entire chain from the supply chain to the brand to the delivery, the ultimate effect is that the vertical integration of the industry will deepen.


The core barriers of companies such as RIO and Mixue Bingcheng lies in its supply chain value, not simply C -end brand value.For example, in addition to its own use, RIO's parent company Bairun has also been supplied to Pepsi, vitality forest, Nongfu Spring and a considerable number of low wine brands. The B -end income has accounted for 10%of its total income.


Among this wave of new consumption, the head effects, platform effects, profit effects, and overseas effects of the new brand running out will also become a clearer development trend in the next year.


Head companies such as Bubble Mart, Perfect Diary, and Vitality Forest have begun to explore from brand to platform exploration attempts. Frequent investment and acquisitions, upstream supply chains and continuous investment in research and development are this reflection.Once the header of the head company, its vertical industrial integration and horizontal boundary expansion will bring more room for development.The main role of its industrial chain will also become the final capital destination of small and beautiful brands.


Relying on the overflowing effect of domestic supply chains, channels, especially traffic operations, the head brand is also destined to have the opportunity to become an international brand, especially the platform's big hand, including Ali Tune Jiang Fan, byte TIKTOK/FANNO, Tencent Investment CIDERWhen cross -border e -commerce, the channel overflowing effect that the brand can enjoy the sea has been eager to come out.


But all of this needs to be established, and the category has been verified on the premise of the possibility of branding.Therefore, "category thinking" will once again become an important idea for us to observe the development of the consumer industry. Whether it is a single product brand or channel, which categories have been falsified, and which categories are still waiting for outbreaks.


To be sure, simple traffic thinking is no longer completely effective.We need to review what Simon Peel said in the 2019 Adidas Global Media Director Simon Peel in an interview with Marketingweek:


Adidas has excessively invested in the past years that seem to have higher digital effect advertisements, and ignore brand advertisements.The serious consequence of this is:It seems that the more efficient advertising has brought a substantial decline in brand value.Between short -term interests and long -term value, ADIDAS chose short -term interests, and this ended back to long -term value.


A senior executive of the whole cotton era also said similar words:In the past ten years, the e -commerce platform has basically consumed the brand effect, because it is just doing transactions and traffic.


After the inflection point arrives, the content rather than simply the traffic will become higher and higher, and the path of large communities and large platforms involving the consumer industry will also change.


One embodiment is that the content and advertisement are rapidly in accordance with the new round of adjustments in Ali E -commerce. Postering and Taobao live broadcasts have been placed in a first -level position.Try to redefine the entire content industry and advertisement through the platform role.Communities with high -value people such as Xiaohongshu and B station have re -focused commercialization on advertising instead of e -commerce.


Another direct manifestation of the deepening of the consumption industry in the large community is that the "lifestyle" will become the main axis of crowds, platforms, and brands, and driving brand repurchase and user relations.


Xiaohongshu has emphasized that he is a "lifestyle platform" many times in the past year, and he is increasingly actively involved in the gesture -making campaign of lifestyle, so as to prove to the brand's key influence in the consumer field.Reflect that camping and skiing.Douyin is trying to list the "grass" as the first -level entrance of the main station, and has also launched an independent e -commerce app similar to "Little Red Book+Equipment".Exhibition ideas turn to lifestyle proposals.


It has been implemented on specific brands and business industries, and its requirements for content have become higher and higher.This is exactly what the founder of Yongzheng emphasized that a consumer brand will experience three stages: "selling goods -lifestyle -cultural output".reason.


The ecology of offline business is booming, and it is also the two sides of the future development trend of large consumption.When a large amount of shopping malls have already presented saturated, they are even more admitted to small commercial industries and neighborhoods that enter the community, becoming a new incremental operating object.The manager's shop, not the efficient commercial brand of Dalong.This is why business industries such as Riyano Regular, TX Huaihai have received much attention in the past year.


In the words of Huang Wei, the founder of The Boxx, the previous consumption was to eat and drink, but the current consumption needs to be immersed, interactive, and social. Business space also needs to be increased from space operation to content operations and user operations.,,In summary, it is to inject content into assets and drive consumption with culture.


Based on our attention to large retail, large consumption, and large communities, we have listed several keywords about 2022 business trends, which is also the main entry point for us to continue to pay attention to these fields in the next year.


1. Strange category


Many category dividends in the past two years have been superimposed by traffic dividends+epidemic factors.


Product manager from the fast -moving consumer factory such as Procter & Gamble+Drotidal Trader+Foundal, Little Red Book Note+Head Blog Cragier Cao+Head Live Broadcasting Room+Infinite Evaporation of Information Flow,A new brand was born, and the core business model is online DTC.Multiple new brands solve the same consumer needs, forming a new category of so -called air outlet.


The needs of these valued consumers are usually related to the epidemic.Because the epidemic home needs to solve dietary problems, it is convenient for new entrepreneurs in the fields of fast food, frozen food, composite seasoning, prefabricated vegetables, etc.;Began to accelerate the consumption of the public; because wearing masks for a long time, pupils, eye shadows, functional skin care, etc. have experienced rapid growth in cosmetics sales.


It also benefits from the most complete domestic industrial chain structure, full industrial chain capabilities, and the reduction of factory stable orders in the epidemic situation.A group of brands of label variables from B -end to C -end have appeared, and they are competing in the traffic field with new brands.


However, the problem is that after the traffic+epidemic, after the two prerequisites weakened or even diminished, the provision of ammunition from VC is becoming more cautious, bringing a series of chain effects.Whether the business model is in line with the correlation of the online DTC business model is becoming more and more prominent.


The origin of this correlation is firstly the degree of acceptance of categories on the C -end market. For those categories that are difficult to occupy the public's mind, their production capacity and target customer group may return to TOB from TOC;Met the efficiency, whether it is B2C or S2B2C, whether it is entering the traditional offline distribution channels, or the self -built channels of the stove, the advantages and disadvantages of efficiency determine the direction of circulation.


Finally, the flexible squeezing between different categories always exists, cost -effective and convenient, and the efficiency and differentiation of the supply chain will play an important role even in the same channel.


So far,After the consumer financing ebb, the development direction of various categories that has been held in various categories has begun to cross, and the categories that have been proven may continue to be promoted.In this dynamic process, waiting for the new variables and time conditions to re -return the upward sequence is a strange point for categories.


Second, small and beautiful


In the past year, most brands have encountered a growth dilemma.Behind this is not only caused by VC ebb, grass planting, and disappearance of traffic dividends. Judging from the development trends of circles, users co -creation, DTC and other industries, the future that most brands have determined are likely to be small and beautiful.


Li Nan, a senior vice president of Meizu, mentioned on many occasions that in 2019, with a consensus with Zhang Yong, then Ali CEO Zhang Yong, most of the GMVs of the e -commerce platform now come from the Fortune 500, but there may be 5,000 in the future in the future.Strong and fifty thousand.The most valuable brand will increase with ten or 100 times.


Tang Binsen also mentioned it,The future brand pattern should be subdivided vertical and niche.Because the brand solves the demand, not the underlying demand.He used a very vivid metaphor that China had repaired Beijing -Shanghai high speed and built a base station along the street based on the Beijing -Shanghai high -speed construction was a more valuable thing.


In addition to the vitality forest and tea -burning tea, the brand matrix of the vitality forest also includes the yogurt brand Beihai Ranch, the energy beverage brand alien, the fruit juice brand full margin, the mineral water brand has minerals, andPedician light food and NEVER COFFEE are incorporated into the group brand matrix.


Make a friend who is also relying on anchor resources and channel capabilities to create its own brand matrix. The co -founder Huang He believes that the brand that may really succeed in the future is more than NMIN.Very strong, and more importantly, there are clear profit models.


A noteworthy conclusion is,If most new consumer brands will become small and beautiful subdivided brands, so most brands will not have a short time and high -rate return on VC.Unless it is a head consumer brand with absolute head brands such as vitality forest, Yixian e -commerce, and Xicha already has the absolute head brand and has brand matrix operation capabilities.


in some meaning,The investment opportunities of the new consumer brand have indeed closed the door to VC, but the old consumer giants who need brand renewal and market value management have found their opportunities.The phenomenon of new consumer brands in the head of the head will continue.


Of course, every brand with profitability will have more opportunities to choose, committing to giants, or small and beautiful, all are out of the way.


Third, vertical integration


In addition to small and beautiful brands, head brands will control upstream and downstream control through "vertical integration" expansion to further improve their own competitive barriers.


One aspect of vertical integration is to extend upstream, and the brand realizes the upstream supply chain through self -construction and investment.(Raw materials, processing)Control to avoid restrictions on raw materials and capacity, and improve product product control.


For example, in 2021, Miyuki Bingcheng and Tea Yanyue set up agricultural companies because the method of homogeneous competition in the new tea track products is product innovation, but this requires sufficient raw material supply capabilities as support to ensure that ensuringPurchasing and price stability.


Another aspect is a self -built and controllable sales network in the downstream.The purpose of self -built offline channels is to accelerate the penetration of couples and some channel fees, on the other hand, to establish their own product test channels.


In this process, the brand will also improve the efficiency of upstream and downstream through the digital system, and deepen the degree of integration and synergy.Some manufacturers are also using their own raw materials and production advantages to expand downstream by incubation, investment and other methods to obtain high value -added of product deep processing.


Fourth, profit, profit, profit


The core issues that all brand categories will face the next year cannot escape the "profit".


In the past few years, the model of new brands with the help of capital leveraging explosive growth has become the norm, that is, it has driven the rapid growth of users and GMV through short -term traffic, and the brand with a loss of 40%and 50%is very good.


However, since the second half of 2021, with the decline in the new consumption investment boom, the number of VCs is decreasing, and investment will become more and more cautious. Perfect diary, Naixue's tea, bubble Mate, etc.The trend of the decline in valuation also affects the enthusiasm and valuation considerations of the investment in the first -level market.Coupled with the gradual disappearance of traffic dividends, the growth model of "capital-traffic" has failed, and the new brand must have the ability to self-hematoporama.


After experiencing a wave of new brands, VC is very harsh on new consumer brands. If GMV and ROI increases too much, they will worry that you have ignored brand building. If you focus on brand building in the early stage, they will question the brand's growth rate.In addition, the brand is best to have offline channel capabilities or distribute the network system.


For a new brand that has just started, it is impossible for brands, sales, and channels to be a triangle.But this may also be able to see capital's thirst for the definition of new brand profitability and long -term development stability.


Some former star segment tracks, because the growth rate of head companies cannot meet the requirements of the capital market, it is difficult for the top three companies to get financing, and even the entire track is not as much as possible.There are naturally no zero -sum game of consumer goods. As long as the brand that meets the real needs of users, and the service users are good, they will have their own business. After three or five years, they will be optimistic about capital. HoweverEssence


all in all,Regardless of whether it is initiative or passive, capital and new brands themselves will increasingly emphasize profitability. Pay attention to data such as repurchase rates, ROI, conversion rate, and customer acquisition costs reflecting operating efficiency and operating quality.Some brands we have come into contact with at the end of 2021 emphasize the role of repurchase rate in GMV growth, emphasize cash flow control, and we must earn one order when selling one order.


Five, embedding


Represented by Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, etc., the urban construction of China's first -tier and new first -tier cities has ended the overall planning and large -scale construction stage, and has entered a more flexible organic update.


Compared with the giant business of one -stop services in the previous generation, these new projects based on existing property transformation are small, scattered, and widely nested in different communities of cities.


"Embedding" is the natural result brought by the transformation of the existing property of the old city.Shanghai's cross -border Shaanxi Kangli is located at the intersection of North Shaanxi Road and Kangding Road. Its core building is a Western -style red brick building.The community, the Shengxin Institute is based on the Columbia Club and Sun Ke's former residence for building renewal.


The commercial spaces in the community are often supplemented with nearby large shopping malls.For example, Wuyi | MIX320 is close to the Zhongshan Park business district; Chengdu's Regular Yuanye and Ito Yang Huatang are only across the intersection.


Different from the traditional community business, these new spaces must not only provide a surrounding convenience, but also have the ability to attract wider passenger flow. This requires them to find new problem solving ideas outside the traditional commercial real estate idea.Beijing's Nanyang · sharing is based on the theme of drama, filling space content through rich drama performances; the drainage of the Shengxin Institute through the Baowu Bookstore; Regular Yuanye will make it a popular landmark in Chengdu through the introduction of the human business.Essence


The "embedding" will continue to receive more attention from the dimension. To a certain extent, it is a concrete manifestation of the overall thinking of Chinese urban planning in the new stage.Just as the Shanghai 2040 General Plan is mentioned in the chapter of "Create a Diverse and Integrate Urban and Rural" -about 15 minutes of life circle is an important way to achieve a livable city.


Six, the principle of humanization


As an imported word, the concept of "the principal" was first used in trendy brands and was used to distinguish from the managers of the Volkswagen clothing brands.In the past few years, with the renewal of the consumer market, in China, the concept of the principal has been introduced and used in more fields, and has been generally recognized and watched.


The core of the brand's brand is "its own taste", pointing to a more stylish, more personalized aesthetic and experience.The principal often comes with traffic, and has a faithful follower in their circle.The pursuit of the new generation of consumers' brand of the principles shows their changes in consumer demand and consumer habits.


This change has been captured by commercial real estate, becoming a new solution in urban renewal and space operations. Chengdu Regular Yuanye is one of the representatives.


In non -first -tier cities, the principal becomes a new career choice for young people, and it has also become a sinking path for the new lifestyle.In the trend of controlling the secondary market control, in the changing distribution mechanism, the principal also has the opportunity to become the direction of future social capital flow.


At the same time, represented by Jiang Sida, for the content industry, the emergence of a group of celebrities also provides a new definition and problem -solving method of IP.


In a wider range of consumption and retail fields, whether it is due to a response to the consumer consumer demand of consumers, or the requirements for establishing a higher sticky user relationship, the brand operation of "the color" will also become a trend.


The "principle humanization" here can be a clearer product style and brand values, or it can also be a change in consumer communication represented by marketing.It does not necessarily really need a specific person standing on the front desk, pointing to a brand creation method with stronger personality and more uniform style.


Seven, lifestyle proposals


"Lifetime" is a higher -dimensional vocabulary that allows brands to surpass specific physical attribute products, categories, and even the brand itself.It first represented a separation of "taste" and "class". After combining with the consumer culture, it refers to a marketing concept with aesthetic and valuable values.interaction.


In 1975, American scholar Will(William D. Well)Putting the concept of lifestyle marketing, it is a company that enterprises have a group of consumers with the same dominance time and money model through the understanding of consumer psychology, values, values, consumer behavior, audiovisual contact.Cognition and obtaining the spontaneous identity of consumers, creating a marketing method of products that really move consumers.


The earliest representative company that applied this marketing concept was Ford. It launched a Thunderbird Around the 1960s(Thunderbird), Mustang(Mustang)Wing(Maverick)Cars with different lifestyles have been returned to the leading car leader in the United States since then.


In China, as grass -growing people, content, and communities are becoming more and more important in the overall consumption chain.The "lifestyle" will become a crowd, platform, and brand participation, and the main axis that drives brand repurchase and user relations.


More and more brands have begun to declare that they are "lifestyles", such as the inside and outside of the underwear to clothing, and Beaster, from the tide brand to home and children's clothing lines.Modern Sky has to rise from a music company to a lifestyle company, thereby generating closer connections with new consumption.Swordsman directly defined comedy consumption as a lifestyle.


Some brands can even break through the popularity of lifestyle.For example, as a lifestyle, camping brought a fire brand such as Snowpeak, and behind the skiing is the opportunity for professional brands such as Burton and Distet to go to the public.


This is of course related to the overall supply of consumption and the increasing sense of consumer sovereignty.The brand lifestyle can also meet the objective requirements of more and more content for advertising;Focusing on a supply of a core crowd to form different categories, it is a cost -effective expansion method, especially in the case of extremely mature domestic supply chain.


8. Agricultural product branding


The brand building of agricultural products has been being scattered in China for a long time, and lacks a large -scale production system, as well as discrete consumer markets.This dispersed situation determines the foundation of the lack of brand building in agricultural products.


The opportunity to shake this powerful structure comes from the changes in the retail channels of the industrial chain and the intermediate circulation links.


It is also a down -to -top industrial change that has accelerated in the past two years.During the self -iteration of the retail industry, the demand for discrete agricultural products was brought together by e -commerce and new retailers.Based on these needs, traditional multi -level and decentralized circulation resources have also begun to be dispersed and re -combined.


The concentration of demand and the reduction of circulation links provides a favorable prerequisite for agricultural products from top to bottom to the brand.In this process, some agricultural categories have gradually exposed the trend of branding.For example, processing foods such as mountain goods, beef and mutton, aquatic products, and fresh agricultural products with high commercial value such as fruits.In the context of circulation and change, the reason why priority to branding is that their own production and supply chain foundation is relatively concentrated.


Taking Nuts as an example, at present, there are quite a large -scale nut industry belt in Jieyang, Zhejiang, Hangzhou, Zhejiang.They are not only a gathering place for raw materials, but also the concentration of sale related packaging materials, logistics, manpower and other resources.Under the premise that demand is concentrated, the nuts suppliers of the industrial belt also get the opportunity to quickly respond to market demand.They are no longer just the role of a supplier in the industrial chain, but also have the ability to face the consumer market.


Of course, at present this trend of agricultural products from top to bottom has just started. There is still a long way to go in front of it to go, the more they reach the upper reaches of the industrial chain.The greater the resistance.


However, self -iterations from the continuous advancement of the retail system have provided new solutions for the response to these complex interests in the upstream.The continuous concentration and more consumer demand they brought by them have become an opportunity for the construction of agricultural product brands upstream in the next year.


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